U.S. private equity deal value rose about 8% in the first half of 2025 to just over $195 billion, while dry powder fell from a December 2024 peak of $1.3 trillion to roughly $880 billion by September. The capital is moving again, and most of it is crowding into a small number of very large deals.
For JP Conte and his family office, that concentration is the defining feature of the 2026 market, and the reason he thinks patient money matters more now than it has in years.
The top of the market is crowded
Megadeals came back faster than everything else. PwC counted 47 transactions worth $5 billion or more through the first nine months of 2025, pacing the year 31% above 2024. In industrial manufacturing, deals above $5 billion made up 52% of total value, up from just 18% the year before.
The buyer pool tightened at the same time. Large diversified managers keep taking a bigger share of commitments, which leaves more sponsors chasing fewer genuinely good assets at the trophy end of the market.
Why permanent capital prices differently
Fund-stage sponsors run against hard exit windows, redemption pressure, and return targets that punish every quarter an asset sits unsold. A family office with permanent capital carries none of that weight, so the same company is simply worth more to Conte than to a buyer pricing in an exit by year five.
The flows back it up. Global private equity fundraising fell to roughly $150 billion in the second quarter of 2025, and U.S. fundraising tracked about 40% below the prior year. Family offices are catching a growing slice of the dollars that once flowed to mid-market funds.
The buyer pool narrows
Deal size is only part of the crowding. Large diversified managers keep taking a bigger slice of total commitments, while limited partners back fewer firms and lean harder on those that can show they create value rather than merely buy and wait.
Conte’s office sits outside that scramble. Lupine Crest Capital, the family office he founded, works across healthcare, financial services, software, and industrial technology, a middle-market lane where a patient buyer can still win on merit.
Where the middle market rewards patience
Bain’s 2026 report describes a narrow recovery carried by a handful of huge deals, and a recovery that narrow is exposed to the next shock. Patient structures are built to perform without needing that rebound to keep widening.
Conte, founder and managing partner of Lupine Crest Capital, operates below the megadeal tier on purpose, which keeps him clear of the most overpriced slice of the market while the giants fight over it.
